{"id":1433,"date":"2020-08-18T02:38:39","date_gmt":"2020-08-18T01:38:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/imnotasaint.net\/?p=1433"},"modified":"2020-08-18T02:38:39","modified_gmt":"2020-08-18T01:38:39","slug":"cerezo-in-july","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/imnotasaint.net\/index.php\/2020\/08\/18\/cerezo-in-july\/","title":{"rendered":"Cerezo in July"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In July the J League started again. It had been shut down in February with teams having played only one game. Cerezo got off to a pretty good start winning 3, drawing 2 and losing only 1 game. The loss was to in-form Nagoya. This is what the league table looked like a the end of July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/td>Team<\/td>P<\/td>W<\/td>D<\/td>L<\/td>GF<\/td>GA<\/td>GD<\/td>PTS<\/td><\/tr>
1<\/td>Kawasaki<\/td>7<\/td>6<\/td>1<\/td>0<\/td>20<\/td>6<\/td>14<\/td>19<\/td><\/tr>
2<\/td>Gamba<\/td>7<\/td>5<\/td>1<\/td>1<\/td>12<\/td>7<\/td>5<\/td>16<\/td><\/tr>
3<\/td>Nagoya<\/td>6<\/td>4<\/td>2<\/td>0<\/td>11<\/td>4<\/td>7<\/td>14<\/td><\/tr>
4<\/td>Tokyo<\/td>7<\/td>4<\/td>2<\/td>1<\/td>12<\/td>9<\/td>3<\/td>14<\/td><\/tr>
4<\/td>Cerezo<\/td>7<\/td>4<\/td>2<\/td>1<\/td>8<\/td>5<\/td>3<\/td>14<\/td><\/tr>
6<\/td>Urawa<\/td>7<\/td>4<\/td>1<\/td>2<\/td>8<\/td>9<\/td>-1<\/td>13<\/td><\/tr>
7<\/td>Kashiwa<\/td>7<\/td>4<\/td>0<\/td>3<\/td>18<\/td>12<\/td>6<\/td>12<\/td><\/tr>
8<\/td>Hokkaido<\/td>7<\/td>3<\/td>3<\/td>1<\/td>12<\/td>9<\/td>3<\/td>12<\/td><\/tr>
9<\/td>Kobe<\/td>7<\/td>2<\/td>3<\/td>2<\/td>6<\/td>8<\/td>-2<\/td>9<\/td><\/tr>
10<\/td>Hiroshima<\/td>6<\/td>2<\/td>1<\/td>3<\/td>8<\/td>5<\/td>3<\/td>7<\/td><\/tr>
11<\/td>Yokohama FM<\/td>7<\/td>2<\/td>1<\/td>4<\/td>12<\/td>14<\/td>-2<\/td>7<\/td><\/tr>
12<\/td>Oita<\/td>7<\/td>2<\/td>1<\/td>4<\/td>8<\/td>12<\/td>-4<\/td>7<\/td><\/tr>
13<\/td>Sendai<\/td>7<\/td>1<\/td>3<\/td>3<\/td>9<\/td>14<\/td>-5<\/td>6<\/td><\/tr>
14<\/td>Yokohama FC<\/td>7<\/td>1<\/td>2<\/td>4<\/td>7<\/td>16<\/td>-9<\/td>5<\/td><\/tr>
15<\/td>Tosu<\/td>7<\/td>0<\/td>4<\/td>3<\/td>2<\/td>6<\/td>-4<\/td>4<\/td><\/tr>
16<\/td>Shonan<\/td>7<\/td>1<\/td>1<\/td>5<\/td>8<\/td>13<\/td>-5<\/td>4<\/td><\/tr>
17<\/td>Kashima<\/td>7<\/td>1<\/td>1<\/td>5<\/td>7<\/td>13<\/td>-6<\/td>4<\/td><\/tr>
17<\/td>Shimizu<\/td>7<\/td>1<\/td>1<\/td>5<\/td>9<\/td>15<\/td>-6<\/td>4<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Cerezo where joint 4th with Kawasaki in first place. This is no surprise as Kawasaki are a strong team who have won the title 2 times in the last 3 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I decided to look at the current results in context. There is a football stat called the Uncle Jeff Coefficient. It compares current results with the equivalent results (i.e. against the same teams) from the previous season (this season points – last season points). These are the best and worst preforming teams for July<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1<\/td>Nagoya<\/td>10<\/td><\/td>18<\/td>Hiroshima<\/td>-6<\/td><\/tr>
2<\/td>Tokyo<\/td>8<\/td><\/td>17<\/td>Kashima<\/td>-6<\/td><\/tr>
3<\/td>Kawasaki<\/td>6<\/td><\/td>16<\/td>Shonan<\/td>-6<\/td><\/tr>
4<\/td>Hokkaido<\/td>6<\/td><\/td>15<\/td>Yokohama FM<\/td>-5<\/td><\/tr>
5<\/td>Urawa<\/td>6<\/td><\/td>14<\/td>Sendai<\/td>-4<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Both Nagoya and Hiroshima have played one game less due to a weather cancellation. Despite this Nagoya are top of this form league. Hiroshima are bottom with their mid-table position below their expected performance. An extra 6 points would put them 6th. Yokohama FM are performing rather badly. They won the league last season. An extra 5 points would only put them 7th so maybe they have had some difficult games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One issue with such a statistic is that, while it provides an easy comparison, one good or bad season could provide a poor comparison for the subsequent season. I extended the definition to consider the average number of points taken in the equivalent fixture over the past 4 seasons. The magic number of 4 had been chosen as it gives an average and dividing by 4 gives readable decimal numbers. A little trickery is required to deal with promoted and relegated teams but the use of only 4 seasons keeps this to a minimum. The form table using this statistic is as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1<\/td>Nagoya<\/td>7.5<\/td><\/td>18<\/td>Kashima<\/td>-6.25<\/td><\/tr>
2<\/td>Kawasaki<\/td>6<\/td><\/td>17<\/td>Shonan<\/td>-5.25<\/td><\/tr>
3<\/td>Tokyo<\/td>5.25<\/td><\/td>16<\/td>Tosu<\/td>-5<\/td><\/tr>
4<\/td>Hokkaido<\/td>3.5<\/td><\/td>15<\/td>Hiroshima<\/td>-4.25<\/td><\/tr>
5<\/td>Kashiwa<\/td>3.25<\/td><\/td>14<\/td>Sendai<\/td>-3<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Similar results. Kashiwa have done well at the start of this season and sit in 7th place in the league table. They are a newly promoted side but were relegated the season before last while playing in the Asian Champions League. The J League can be a bit topsy-turvy. Cerezo are neither best or worst performers. Their performance is generally as expected.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In July the J League started again. It had been shut down in February with teams having played only one game. Cerezo got off to a pretty good start winning 3, drawing 2 and losing only 1 game. The loss was to in-form Nagoya. This is what the league table looked like a the end… <\/p>\n

Read More<\/i><\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[27,6],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/imnotasaint.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1433"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/imnotasaint.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/imnotasaint.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/imnotasaint.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/imnotasaint.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1433"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/imnotasaint.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1433\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1437,"href":"http:\/\/imnotasaint.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1433\/revisions\/1437"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/imnotasaint.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1433"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/imnotasaint.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1433"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/imnotasaint.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1433"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}